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Tropical Depression FOUR-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Tropical Depression Four-E remains very disorganized.  Last-light
visible imagery showed that multiple low-level swirls are rotating
around a mean center.  IR imagery and radar data from the Mexican
radar in Acapulco indicate that deep convection is largely limited
to a broken band wrapping around the eastern half of the depression,
with only a single burst of deep convection recently observed near
the estimated center.  Given the disorganized nature of the
depression, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, though it
is possible this is generous.

Little change has been made to the intensity forecast.  Although
SSTs exceed 30 deg C along the forecast track, moderate vertical
wind shear, close proximity to land, and the lack of an inner core
should limit the intensification rate.  Rapid weakening is likely
following landfall, and the system is now forecast to dissipate
within 96 h.  The official forecast remains near the corrected
consensus aid HCCA.

The disorganized nature of the depression makes it difficult to
identify and track a surface center, so the initial position and
motion estimates are very uncertain.  All of the global models
indicate that the system will meander near the coast of Mexico for
the next couple of days, ultimately drifting northward toward land.
The NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the
previous track advisory.  It is worth noting that confidence in both
the track and intensity forecast is low.  It is possible that the
surface center could reform one or more times over the next couple
of days, either bringing the system inland sooner than currently
forecast or keeping it over water longer than expected.  Large
changes to the intensity or track forecasts may be required in
future advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 15.4N 100.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 15.6N 100.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.8N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.9N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.2N  99.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Sunday, 16-Dec-2018 12:10:17 UTC