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Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
1200 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...BUD PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 109.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 109.7 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northward motion should begin later today.  On the forecast track,
the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday.  The
weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland
Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center
reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to
weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay
into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while
it moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.  A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located
in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a wind gust to 69
mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area now, and those conditions will continue into this afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through
Saturday.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN