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Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
600 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...BUD MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 109.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
northward motion is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja
California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California by
late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although slow weakening is expected during the next day or
so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches
southern Baja California Sur late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Thursday evening.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur
and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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