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Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...BUD WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 108.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 108.8 West.  Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  Bud is forecast to
accelerate northward on Thursday and continue that motion into
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to
cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the
Gulf of California later on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Although additional weakening is expected during the
next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it
reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Thursday evening.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2
inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur
and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja
California Peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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