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Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
600 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 108.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (3 km/h).  Although Bud
has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, a general motion
toward the northwestward with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected to resume later today and continue into Thursday. Bud is
forecast to accelerate northward late Thursday into Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Bud will cross southern Baja
California Sur early Friday and move over the Gulf of California
later on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Although additional weakening is expected, Bud
is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern
Baja California Sur late Thursday or Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur
and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja
California Peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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