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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...BUD SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 109.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
* Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.  A Tropical Storm Watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California
Sur, and within the next 12 to 24 hours across western Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 109.5 West. Bud is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to move across
southern Baja California Sur overnight and move over the Gulf of
California on Friday.  The weakening cyclone is expected to move
over mainland Mexico by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
on Friday and dissipate on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area now, and those conditions will continue overnight.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch
area overnight and Friday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday
morning.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
Mexico through Saturday.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico and the southern Baja
California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

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