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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...BUD STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 109.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a
portion of eastern Baja California Sur from La Paz northward to
San Evaristo, and also for western mainland Mexico from Altata
northward to Huatabampito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
* Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California
Sur, and within the next 48 hours across western Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northward motion should begin later tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
tonight and move over the Gulf of California on Friday.  The
weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland
Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bud is
forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center reaches
southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to
weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay
into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while
it moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, a Mexican Navy automatic
weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas reported a
sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). More
recently, a Mexican Conagua weather station in Cabo San Lucas
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph
(76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area now, and those conditions will continue into tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch
area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area
beginning Friday morning and continuing into Friday evening.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
Mexico through Saturday.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN