ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...BUD WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 108.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
southern Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz, including
Cabo San Lucas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 108.6 West.  Bud is moving
toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through
Thursday.  Bud is forecast to accelerate northward late Thursday
into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Bud will
cross southern Baja California Sur Thursday night and move over the
Gulf of California on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Bud is
expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.  Bud is forecast
to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja
California Sur late Thursday or Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning on Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur
and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja
California Peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN