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TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032018
1500 UTC WED JUN 13 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... INCLUDING
CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 108.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.2N 109.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.3N 109.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 108.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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