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Tropical Depression Bud Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Bud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to
the northwest of the center.  Assuming gradual weakening since the
ASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with
those winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of
the center.  The shear is expected to remain strong through
landfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours
and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by
early Saturday.

The initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue
moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge
to the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its
west.

Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate
on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to
spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the
southwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall
and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further
information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued
by your local weather service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan/McElroy

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