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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

The effect of the terrain of Baja California Sur and the increasing
shear is disrupting Bud's structure. Water vapor images show a
mid-level center moving fast to the northeast, while low cloud
motions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level
center has been left behind over or near Baja.  The low-level
circulation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak
convective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of
California and northwestern Mexico.  An earlier ASCAT pass showed a
few 35-kt wind vectors within a very small area over water to the
east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept
at 35 kt in this advisory. Given the hostile environment, weakening
is anticipated, and Bud is forecast to become a remnant low in about
24 hours, and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of
Sonora.

Now that the low-level center is becoming elongated, the initial
motion is more difficult to ascertain. The best estimate is toward
the north or 355 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is already embedded
within the southerly flow along the western side of a high
pressure ridge.  This persistent pattern should steer Bud toward the
north until dissipation. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the
multi-model consensus.

Since the tropical-storm-force winds are limited to a small area to
the east of the center, the Government of Mexico discontinued the
watches and warnings for Baja California Sur, and kept the watch for
a portion of the mainland.

Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture
plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into
northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest today and on
Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash
flooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 24.6N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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