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Tropical Storm BUD


Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Bud's
wind field and convective pattern have changed little during the
past 6 hours. Some new modest convective banding has developed in
the inner-core region, but overall cloud pattern remains primarily
a large swirl of low clouds. Some of the convective bands in the
northern semicircle have been bringing stronger winds aloft based
on surface obs Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of
Cabo San Lucas where sustained winds of 50 kt and a gust to 60 kt
have been observed. However, those winds may have been enhanced by
local terrain. Closer to the surface, a Mexican CONAGUA weather
station in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 34
kt and a gust to 41 kt. Based on these data, Bud's intensity remains
at 40 kt.

Bud has maintained a steady motion of 345/06 kt. No changes were
required to the previous forecast track. The model guidance remains
in excellent agreement that Bud should turn northward by 12 h while
crossing over the southern Baja California peninsula, and emerge
over the warmer waters of the Gulf of California by Friday
afternoon. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a large
subtropical ridge oriented east-to-west across north-central Mexico,
a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast is anticipated by
36 hours and beyond. The new NHC advisory track is similar to the
previous forecast track, and remains near the eastern edge of the
model guidance suite.

Bud's intensity will likely change little during the next 12 hours
or so. By 24 hours, however, interaction with the mountainous
terrain of southern Baja California should disrupt the circulation,
inducing a steady weakening of the wind field. Due to the waters of
the Gulf of California being around 27 deg C, some convective
banding could persist in the northeastern quadrant and some
enhancement of wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to
funneling could occur. For those reasons, Bud has been maintained as
a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 30
hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours
is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico.

Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
those areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
please see products issued by your local weather service office.


INIT  14/2100Z 22.2N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 23.5N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/1800Z 25.6N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  16/0600Z 28.0N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/1800Z 30.3N 109.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Stewart