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Hurricane Bud Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

Bud continues to be adversely affect by cooler waters and
decreasing oceanic heat content.  The eye has disappeared from
geostationary imagery, and the inner core convection has been
eroded.  Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
estimates, the current intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory.
Bud should encounter even cooler waters over the next day or so,
which should result in additional weakening.  The official
intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus and to
the DSHIPS output.  Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is
still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern
Baja California Sur in about 48 hours.

A mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States has
been partly blocking Bud's north-northwestward advance and the
current motion of the cyclone is about 330/4 kt.  A mid-level trough
approaching southern California and the northern Baja California
peninsula should cause Bud to move faster toward the north in a
couple of days.  Not much change has been made to the previous
official forecast, and the new NHC forecast is close the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash
flooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 19.1N 108.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 21.6N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  17/0600Z 34.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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