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Hurricane Bud Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Satellite data suggest that Bud is strengthening.  Shortwave
infrared images and an SSMIS pass from a few hours ago indicate that
Bud's inner core and banding features are becoming better defined,
and an eye feature has recently become evident in most satellite
channels.  However, deep convection is not yet symmetric with the
strongest convection remaining to the east of the center.  The 00Z
Dvorak classifications ranged from 55 to 75 kt, and the initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, closer to the high end of the range given
the improved structure of the inner core during the past several
hours.

Bud is moving northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  This general heading with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days.
Some of the models show Bud stalling on Tuesday or Wednesday as the
steering currents weaken between the ridge to the north of the
hurricane and a developing mid- to upper-level low to its west.
After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to weaken,
allowing Bud to resume a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion toward the Baja California peninsula.  The track model
guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near
the various consensus aids.  This prediction is largely an update of
the previous one.

A recent 37 GHz GMI microwave pass indicated a closed ring around
the eye, which is often a precursor of rapid intensification.  Based
on this structure and conducive environmental conditions, rapid
intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.   This
forecast though, unlike the previous one, does call for slow
weakening beyond 24 hours as the expected slow motion of Bud could
cause cool water to upwell, ending the strengthening trend.  More
significant weakening is predicted to begin in 2 to 3 days when Bud
tracks over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air
mass.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short
term, given the aforementioned signals of intensification, but falls
in line with the guidance thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 16.0N 104.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 16.7N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 17.5N 106.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 18.4N 107.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 19.9N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 21.7N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 24.1N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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