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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Recent microwave imagery indicate that the inner core of Bud is
better organized with the presence of a mid-level eye feature.
Although Dvorak T-numbers are increasing, none of them support
hurricane intensity yet. On this basis, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 55 kt in this advisory.  The environment
is quite favorable for strengthening, and most of the rapid
intensification indexes suggest that this process will occur
during the next 12 to 24 hours. This seems more likely now that
Bud's inner core structure is improving.  The official forecast
calls for intensification following closely the corrected consensus
numerical guidance HCCA. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should
begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja
California peninsula.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the
periphery of high pressure system over the western United States.
In about 3 days, Bud should reach the western edge of the high, and
the cyclone should begin to turn toward the north-northwest and
then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast
for the next 3 to 4 days since guidance continues to be in quite
good agreement.  This motion should keep the tropical cyclone
offshore of mainland Mexico, but only a small deviation to the right
of the track could bring stronger winds to a portion of the coast
within the area between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.  All
interests in that area should closely monitor the progress of Bud.

Even if Bud remains well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico,
large swells should affect that portion of the coast during the next
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 14.7N 103.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.7N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 18.4N 107.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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