ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018 Recent microwave data indicates that the cloud pattern of Aletta continues to lose organization due to southerly vertical wind shear, with the remains of the eye located near the south edge of the main convective area. The initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 85 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Rapid weakening should continue due to a combination of shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and entrainment of dry air. Aletta is currently forecast to drop below hurricane strength in less than 24 h, weaken to a depression by 48 h, and subsequently degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The initial motion is now 295/5. The cyclone should move generally northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After Aletta weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it should turn westward, and then southwestward, in the low-level trade wind flow. In contrast to the last advisory, the guidance envelope for this advisory has has shifted somewhat to the north. The new forecast track is similar to, but just north of the previous forecast, and it lies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the group of consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 113.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 16.9N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 17.4N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 17.0N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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