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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018
 
During the past several hours, a prominent convective band began
developing in association with the low pressure system that we have
been tracking south of Mexico during the past few days.  In using
that band for Dvorak estimates, TAFB provided a satellite intensity
estimate of T2.0/30 kt while SAB provided an estimate of T1.5/25
kt.  In addition, GOES-16 1-minute visible satellite imagery showed
that the low had developed a closed surface circulation and a
well-defined center.  Advisories are therefore being initiated on
Tropical Depression Two-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt based
on an earlier partial ASCAT pass.
 
The depression is currently moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
However, due to a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico,
the cyclone is expected to turn westward and slow down during the
next 24 hours.  By days 3-5, the cyclone should reach a weakness in
the ridge, allowing it to turn back toward the northwest but
maintain its slow motion.  While the dynamical models all generally
agree on this scenario, there are some noticeable differences in the
guidance.  The ECMWF lies to the south of the other models, while
the HWRF is to the north and generally faster than the other
guidance.  For this first official forecast, the NHC prediction lies
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and is of
average confidence.
 
Environmental conditions appear ideal for intensification.  Sea
surface temperatures will be close to 30 degrees Celsius for the
next 36 hours, while at the same time deep-layer shear will be very
low and upper-level divergence will be high.  In response, the Rapid
Intensification Indices are giving a 50/50 chance of a 45-kt
increase in 36 hours and a 55-kt increase in 48 hours.  As a
result, the NHC official intensity forecast is rather aggressive and
lies slightly above the highest guidance through the first 3 days,
making the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours.  Gradual weakening is
expected on days 4 and 5 when the hurricane reaches cooler waters.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 14.1N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 14.3N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 14.5N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 14.7N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 14.8N 109.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 15.3N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 16.5N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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