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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during
the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical
depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are
2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The
depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind
environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a
short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.

Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain
and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5
knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and
not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a
weak subtropical ridge is anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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