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BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Advisory Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012018
500 AM HST Wed Oct 03 2018
 
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE WALAKA RACING TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 169.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM N OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Warning for Johnston Atoll has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals
 
A Hurricane Warning indicates that hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area starting later today or tonight.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning indicates that tropical storm conditions
are expected within the warning area starting later today or
tonight.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 169.4 West. Walaka is moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with a faster forward speed is expected through tonight.
Walaka is forecast to turn toward the north with a slower forward
speed Thursday and Thursday night. On this forecast track, the
center of Walaka will likely reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument tonight. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is
possible starting later today. A faster weakening trend is forecast
starting tonight, and continuing through Thursday night. However,
Walaka will likely remain a powerful and life-threatening hurricane
as it crosses the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
tonight.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected to start spreading
across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef by this afternoon, with
hurricane conditions expected over portions of the area between
French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef starting later today or tonight.
 
SURF: Large surf associated with Walaka will continue to affect
Johnston Atoll today. Large surf will impact the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument through early Thursday morning. These
large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls,
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.
 
RAINFALL: Torrential rainfall will begin to spread across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef later today, and continue through
tonight. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Walaka will continue to
move across Johnston Atoll this morning.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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