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Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

While conventional satellite imagery continues to show an area of
deep convection over the center of Oscar, recent microwave data
suggest that the inner core has become fragmented and that the
circulation is tilted from southwest to northeast.  The overall
cloud pattern has also expanded northward as Oscar begins to
interact with a frontal zone that is approaching the system from
the northwest.  A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and Current
Intensity (CI) numbers yields an initial wind speed of 70 kt for
this advisory.  Oscar will be moving over decreasing SSTs and into
an area of higher vertical wind shear tonight and Wednesday which
is likely to cause some additional weakening during that time.  The
hurricane should complete its extratropical transition in about 24
hours, and the dynamical models indicate that the post-tropical
cyclone is likely to maintain 60-65 kt winds for at least another
couple of days.  Some weakening is expected by 96 hours before the
system merges with another low pressure area over the far
northeastern Atlantic.

Oscar has turned northeastward and continues to accelerate. An
additional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next
day or two, as the cyclone becomes embedded within deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough.  Late in the
period, the post-tropical low is forecast to slow down over the
northeastern Atlantic.  The track guidance remains in good
agreement, except for some forward speed differences late in the
period.  The NHC track forecast is once again close to the various
consensus aids and very similar to the previous advisory.

Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions
of the coast of Bermuda through Wednesday.  Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 32.8N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 35.6N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 40.2N  48.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  01/1200Z 44.3N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/0000Z 48.2N  38.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/0000Z 55.2N  24.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/0000Z 61.0N  12.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/0000Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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