Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm MICHAEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018               
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  14(36)   X(36)   X(36)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)  36(36)  22(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X  10(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X  16(16)  12(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X  15(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOVER DE       34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  1  27(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  2  45(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  2  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  3  46(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  9   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 33  37(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
NORFOLK NAS    50  2  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 38  40(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
NORFOLK VA     50  2  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34 40  44(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  2  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 64  20(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  4   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 48   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
RALEIGH NC     50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 77   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
ROCKY MT NC    50 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 40   7(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 94   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 59   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 43   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 48   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 59   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 65   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 50   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 70   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 74   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 77   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN