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Hurricane MICHAEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018               
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  34(34)   X(34)   X(34)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   X(37)   X(37)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)  28(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   1( 1)  47(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)  52(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)  56(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   1( 1)  66(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  2   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  1  14(15)  24(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   5( 5)  54(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)  28(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  3  43(46)  15(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  3  19(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   4( 4)  29(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   4( 4)  19(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  1   8( 9)  14(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1  12(13)  10(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  3   9(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  3  70(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  4  84(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  3  19(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  3  22(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  3  22(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  4  29(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  6  40(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34 26  70(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
AUGUSTA GA     50  3  38(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
AUGUSTA GA     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34 23  29(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 86   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
WAYCROSS GA    50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST MARKS FL    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
APALACHICOLA   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34 30   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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