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Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 86.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 86.8 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h).  This
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center will move
through the Yucatan Channel Monday morning and then across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today.  The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:   Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected
over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  A separate area
of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific
coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El
Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico.  In many of
these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash
floods.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida
Keys through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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