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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 86.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the area of low pressure was centered near
latitude 18.3 North, longitude 86.6 West.  The system appears to be
moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
low or the tropical cyclone should move near the eastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight
or on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance
plane will investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan
peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  A
separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along
the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in
Mexico.  In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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