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Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Michael is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night
or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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