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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS REACHING WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 86.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 18.8 North, longitude 86.6 West.  The low is moving
northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected
for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the low or the
tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sunday night, and
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
system is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and
a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance plane will
investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan
peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  A
separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along
the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in
Mexico.  In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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