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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.0 North, longitude 86.6 West.  The system is moving toward the
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A motion toward the north is
expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track,
the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday
and a tropical storm on Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches
over the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through
Tuesday.  Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in
western Cuba.  A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is
expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico,
including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state
of Chiapas in Mexico.  In many of these areas this rainfall could
lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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