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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N  76.1W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 240SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N  76.1W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N  77.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.2N  71.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 330SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.5N  61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 360SE 240SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.4N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 360SE 300SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.1N  34.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 270SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 47.6N  14.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 150SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N  76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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