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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE GEORGIA AND
FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  82.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE  50SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  82.5W AT 11/0900Z...INLAND
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  83.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.4N  79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 140SE  30SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.9N  74.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.9N  65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.1N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 150SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 49.0N   9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N  82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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