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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH SOUTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  85.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  932 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 210SE 240SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  85.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  85.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.6N  83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 130SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.1N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 160SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.6N  74.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.7N  66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 140SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 46.7N  43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 200SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 49.2N  19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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