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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  85.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  85.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  85.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N  85.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N  86.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N  85.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N  84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.9N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.5N  63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 47.8N  46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N  85.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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