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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  84.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  84.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  85.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.6N  85.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N  85.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.4N  86.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N  86.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  60SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N  73.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 42.8N  59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N  84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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