ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.9W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.9W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  86.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N  86.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N  86.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N  87.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N  86.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N  73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN