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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  86.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  86.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  86.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N  86.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N  86.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N  86.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.4N  87.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 38.5N  77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  86.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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