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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  86.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N  86.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N  86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N  86.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N  86.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  86.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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