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Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern
Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased
to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to
the southeast of the center.  Michael should continue to weaken for
the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina
and into North Carolina.  After that time, the cyclone should start
to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become
a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point.  The
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and
it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical
phase.

The initial motion is now 045/18.  Michael will accelerate toward
the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The new track forecast track is near
the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the
previous forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 33.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/1800Z 35.4N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/0600Z 37.9N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/1800Z 40.9N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0600Z 44.1N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0600Z 49.0N   9.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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