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HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MADEIRA ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  33.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT  23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  65SE  65SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  33.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  35.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.1N  29.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.3N  23.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 34.0N  18.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N  15.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.5N  15.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.0N  18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 28.0N  24.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  33.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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