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Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

There has not been a lot of change with Leslie overnight.  Deep
convection is still organized in curved bands near and to the north
of the center, but there is some dry air entraining into the
western side of the circulation.  A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt.

Leslie is over cool 24 deg C waters, but it will be headed over
slightly warmer waters during the next few days while remaining in
low wind shear conditions.  Therefore, slow strengthening is
expected and most of the intensity models show Leslie reaching
hurricane strength once again within the next 3 to 4 days.  By the
end of the period, cooler waters and an increase in shear could
cause some weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one, to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA
guidance.

Leslie is moving east-southeastward at 11 kt steered by the flow on
the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough over the north
Atlantic.  An east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during
the next couple of days as the trough passes by to the north of
Leslie.  After that time, another large-scale trough will approach
Leslie from the northwest and that should cause the storm to turn
east-northeastward at a faster pace in the 4 to 5 day time frame.
The models have come into a better agreement this cycle showing a
faster and more northward motion at the end of the period, and the
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 35.2N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 34.3N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 32.9N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 31.1N  42.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 29.6N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 28.8N  38.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 31.2N  30.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 36.8N  20.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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