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Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

The central convection associated with Leslie is still well
organized and concentrated.  A recent SSMIS image shows that
Leslie's inner core is better defined resembling an eyewall.
However, Dvorak estimates still support an initial intensity
intensity of 50 kt.

Leslie should weaken slightly during the next 24 to 36 h as the
cyclone crosses patches of cooler SSTs.  After that time, the track
takes the center back over warmer waters, but the shear could
increase a little.  Only minor adjustments are made to the previous
intensity forecast, and the NHC forecast follows very close the
model consensus which suggests slight strengthening by the end of
the forecast period.

Leslie continues to be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and is moving toward the east or 100 degrees at 10 kt. These
westerlies are forecast to be modulated by the passage of short
waves, and the flow pattern will initially keep Leslie on east to
east-southeast track for most of the forecast period. By the end of
the period a turn to the northeast is anticipated.  Models are not
in great agreement but they are consistently showing the eastward
progression of the cyclone. The NHC forecast is very close to the
models consensus, and is basically in the middle of the track
envelope.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 37.4N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 37.1N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 36.6N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 35.8N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 34.8N  45.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 31.5N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 28.5N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 28.5N  31.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven/Avila

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