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Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

Leslie continues to have an inner area of convection near the
center, with a larger convective band present about 120 n mi from
the center and additional banding in the northwestern quadrant.
Since the last advisory, the central convection has become less
symmetric and the eye has become less defined.  Based on this and
the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is
nudged downward to 65 kt.  While the vertical shear should remain
light through the forecast period, the forecast track takes the
center away from 26C sea surface temperatures and over 24-25C
temperatures, and this should cause a gradual weakening for the
next several days.  Since there is little change in the guidance,
the new intensity forecast is again an update of the previous
forecast.

The initial motion is now 355/8.  In the short term, Leslie will be
steered northward with some increase in speed between a mid-level
ridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough
seen in water vapor imagery north of Bermuda.  A decrease in
forward speed should occur from 24-36 h as the trough moves south
and a second ridge develops to the west of the tropical cyclone.
Beyond 48 h, Leslie is expected to move eastward to
east-southeastward at a faster forward speed along the southern edge
of the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance generally
agrees with this scenario, although some spread in both direction
and speed appears by 120 h.  The new track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast and is mostly a blend of the TVCN and HCCA
consensus models.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 32.5N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 34.1N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 35.8N  58.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 36.6N  58.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 36.8N  56.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 36.0N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 35.0N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 33.5N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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