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Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

The satellite presentation of Leslie has changed little over the
past six hours.  Leslie continues to have a large ragged eye with
periodic intrusions of slightly drier air.  The hurricane still has
well-defined outflow over the northern semicircle.  The initial wind
speed is held at 70 kt based on the steady state appearance.

Now that Leslie that has begun its advertised northward turn, it is
passing over the cool wake that it presumably created during the
past day or so, therefore, little change in strength is expected
through this evening.  However, some slight strengthening is
possible later tonight and Thursday after crossing the cool wake.
Gradual weakening then is expected to begin late Thursday when
the system reaches cooler waters farther to the north.  The NHC
intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Satellite images indicate that Leslie is moving northward, and this
motion appears to be accelerating.  This northward motion is
expected to continue through Friday as the hurricane moves in the
flow between a shortwave trough to the northwest and a mid-level
ridge to its southeast.  After that time, an eastward motion is
forecast when a second trough approaches Leslie from the north. The
latest model guidance has shifted a little to the west in the short
term and is slightly slower and farther south at the latter forecast
points.  The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly to trend toward this guidance.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 29.9N  56.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 30.7N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 32.7N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 34.7N  57.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 36.1N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 36.8N  56.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 36.7N  53.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 36.0N  49.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde

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