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Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
800 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

...KIRK MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 63.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe, and the Meteorological
Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados and Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

These watches and warnings will likely be gradually discontinued
later today. Interest elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser
Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of Kirk.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 63.0 West. Kirk is
moving generally toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.  On the
forecast track, the center of Kirk or its remnants will move across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later
today or Saturday, and then degenerate into a trough of low
pressure by late Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue over the warning
area this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area during the next several hours.  Squalls with wind
gusts to tropical-storm force are possible over the remainder of the
Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands today.  Locally
higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains.

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is
expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches today and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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