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Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
800 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KIRK...
...FINDS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 56.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 12.7 North,
longitude 56.1 West.  Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near
18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the
next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move
over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area
Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the
Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean
Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

Aircraft data indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb
(29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area by Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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