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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018

...KIRK HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 53.5W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Guadeloupe and Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 53.5 West.  Kirk is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night.  On the
forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the
northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves
through the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of
4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward
and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward
across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.  These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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