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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

...CENTER OF KIRK CROSSES ST. LUCIA AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 61.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SSW OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located over the eastern Caribbean Sea near latitude 13.8 North,
longitude 61.4 West.  Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h) but is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion by early
Friday and then increase in speed into the weekend.  On the forecast
track, Kirk's center will move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next
couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean
Sea.  Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night,
and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
mainly to the east of the center.  A station at Fond-denis-Cadet in
the higher terrain on Martinique recently reported a wind gust to
68 mph (110 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1002 mb
(29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions
of the warning area and should continue to spread across the
remainder of the warning area overnight.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area overnight.  Locally higher winds
are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains.

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is
expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches by Friday and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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