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Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Kirk has become less organized since the last advisory, with
satellite imagery showing that the low-level center is now exposed
well to the west-northwest of the remaining deep convection.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the winds have decreased to near 40 kt and
that the central pressure has risen to near 1007 mb.  The aircraft
also reports that the circulation is losing definition in the
southwestern quadrant.  Kirk should continue to weaken due to the
effects of 30 kt of westerly vertical shear, and the NHC forecast
continues to call for dissipation just after 24 h.  As noted in the
previous discussion, there is a chance dissipation could occur
earlier than currently forecast.

The center has jogged back to the west-northwest during the past
few hours, which results in an uncertain initial motion of 285/11.
Kirk should move generally west-northwestward on the south side of
the subtropical ridge until dissipation.

Even though Kirk is weakening and moving away from the Lesser
Antilles, the associated gusty winds and rains should continue
affecting the islands today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 13.8N  63.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 14.2N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 14.8N  67.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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