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Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

Kirk remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed low-level
center located to the west of the main convective mass. There has
been some redevelopment of deep convection just northeast of the
center this afternoon, but much of the convection is located well
east and southeast of the center.  Despite the satellite
presentation, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Kirk through early this afternoon continued to find winds to
support an initial intensity of 45 kt.  Another reconnaissance
aircraft mission is scheduled to fly into the storm late this
afternoon and evening.

The strong westerly shear that is currently affecting the tropical
cyclone is forecast to increase over the next day or so, and Kirk
is expected to weaken as the low- and mid-level centers decouple
even further. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
within 36 hours, and is likely to become an open trough in 2 to 3
days when the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.  The NHC
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity
aids, and the global models which show weakening and dissipation of
the system within 72 hours.

Kirk is moving west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 12 kt. A low-
to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern Atlantic is
expected to steer Kirk west-northwestward to westward during the
next couple of days.  The updated NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance, and is essentially an
update of the previous advisory.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although
Kirk has become less organized over the past 24 hours, heavy
rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of
the circulation. These winds and rains are still likely to spread
westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area later
this evening through early Friday. Higher winds are especially
likely over elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 14.2N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 14.6N  62.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 15.3N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 15.8N  66.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 16.1N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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