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Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018

Kirk has not changed much overnight.  Although the storm is
producing a large area of deep convection, the cloud pattern is not
very well organized with the center located near the southwestern
edge of the thunderstorms.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 20 kt of southwesterly shear.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
passed through the northeastern quadrant of Kirk a few hours ago and
found winds to support the same intensity of 45 kt. In addition,
quality control of a ship report that came in around the same time
also supports that intensity.  Another Air Force plane is scheduled
to investigate Kirk later this morning.

A large fetch of strong upper-level westerly or southwesterly winds
are over the entire Caribbean Sea, and Kirk will be moving into
these conditions during the next few days.  These very hostile winds
aloft should cause Kirk to steadily weaken, decouple, and ultimately
dissipate in 3 or 4 days.  The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that
dissipation could occur even sooner.  The intensity models are in
good agreement, and the NHC forecast is the same as the previous
one.

Center fixes from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Kirk is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt.  A continued
west-northwest motion but at a slower pace is expected during the
next few days as Kirk moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level
ridge.  The latest models have not changed much, and the NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.  This
forecast takes Kirk across the Lesser Antilles later today as a
tropical storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 13.5N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 14.2N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 14.9N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 15.6N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 16.0N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 16.3N  71.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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