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Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Although deep convection has increased since earlier today, it has
become increasingly difficult to identify a well-defined center
associated with the depression. After moving erratically during the
afternoon, the center of the depression appears to have become
disrupted by convection to its east, and it is unclear at this point
if a closed surface circulation still exists. Since visible imagery
is not currently available and recent ASCAT data from around 0000Z
was inconclusive, at least one more advisory will be issued under
the assumption that the depression has not quite yet dissipated.

The initial motion is highly uncertain, but it is assumed that the
system is still moving generally northwestward, or 310/3 kt. No
substantial changes were made to the NHC intensity or track
forecasts. All available guidance indicates that the depression will
continue to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward for the
next day or two while it gradually weakens due to continued strong
wind shear. Given the recent increase in convection, it no longer
seems likely that the system will become a remnant low prior to
dissipating. Therefore, the NHC forecast now keeps the system as a
tropical depression until dissipation occurs in 36 h, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.8N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.2N  55.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.5N  56.6W   20 KT  25 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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