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Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018

Joyce continues to hang on as a tropical depression.  The cloud
pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches
of deep convection that become sheared off in the northeast
quadrant.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement
with an ASCAT pass from several hours ago that showed maximum winds
in the 25-30 kt range.  Even though Joyce is over relatively warm
water, the current hostile atmospheric environment of 30-40 kt of
west-southwesterly shear and nearby dry air should cause Joyce to
gradually weaken during the next few days.  Although remnant low
status is not predicted to occur for 2-3 days, it is very possible
that Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low well
before then.

The depression has turned to the east, with the latest initial
motion estimate being 090/15.  The weak and shallow system is
expected to move in the low- to mid-level flow during the next few
days.  This should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn
southeastward on Monday, followed by a southward and then
southwestward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves
around a building ridge over the northeastern Atlantic.  The track
models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were
made to the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 34.4N  32.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 34.2N  30.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 33.6N  28.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 32.4N  27.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 31.2N  27.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 29.4N  30.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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